U.S. Marines and paratroopers are sailing
to the Persian Gulf region.
What started as a devastating series of airstrikes in
Operation Epic Fury is starting to look like the seeds of a ground campaign.
The U.S. is setting up for a ground invasion of Iran, and Tehran’s regime absolutely isn’t ready.
The ground invasion will change everything, and what happens next will be unbelievable.
The incoming forces to Iran certainly indicate that a ground invasion is coming.
The Telegraph reports
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that the U.S. has sent around 2,000 soldiers from the elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Gulf,
and that they’re currently en route and will be ready to step into action if negotiations with
Iran break down.
They’re being joined by similar numbers of U.S. Marines from both the 31st and
the 11th Marine Expeditionary Units, or MEUs, the former of which should be arriving in the Persian
Gulf region at some point toward the end of March.
These are all units that specialize in ground
operations, with the Marine Expeditionary Units, in particular, often being the first to head in
when the U.S.
launches a ground invasion.
They served that role in both Iraq and Afghanistan,
and the signs are starting to suggest they may do something similar in Iran as the U.S.
amasses
a force of more than 6,000 elite soldiers around Tehran.
All signs are pointing toward boots being
put on the ground.
That will change everything for Iran, and the regime knows it.
That’s why
we’re starting to see some major signs of desperation from Iran’s regime mingling with
attempts to prepare for the possibility that it will have to deal with U.S.
soldiers on its
territory sooner, rather than later.
Kharg Island offers the clearest signs of these preparations,
along with a clue about one of the four ways we believe the U.S.
might choose to attack Iran by
ground.
According to The Jerusalem Post and CNN, Iran’s regime is hurriedly trying to fortify Kharg
Island in anticipation of the U.S.
deploying its MEUs and paratroopers on the island.
The former
reported on March 26 that Iran has been busy laying traps all over the island, and that it has
moved both military personnel and air defenses to the rocky little outcrop that plays a crucial
role in the Iranian oil lifeline that is helping to keep the country’s regime in power.
CNN says
much the same, while also noting that around 90% of Iran’s oil exports run through this one island,
so the regime has a very clear desire to protect it.
Without Kharg, the oil money stops flowing,
and the Strait of Hormuz becomes vulnerable.
Anti-armor and anti-personnel mines are among
the traps being laid on the island, CNN reports, with many of these mines reportedly being used
to lace the shorelines that a U.S.
amphibious landing would inevitably have to negotiate.
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Iran’s challenge with Kharg Island is that much of the military infrastructure that already
existed on the vital island has been destroyed in U.S.
airstrikes.
What we see on the island now is
a desperate attempt to bolster a military force that the U.S.
claims has already been shattered.
On March 13, the U.S.
“totally obliterated” the island’s military facilities, U.S.
President
Donald Trump claimed.
Among what Iran lost on that day were missile storage bunkers and naval
mine storage facilities, both of which would be vital in any defense that Iran tries to mount
against America’s amphibious forces.
Air defenses, a helicopter hangar, and an airport control tower
were also reportedly targeted in an attack clearly designed to cripple the Iranian military presence
on Kharg Island, perhaps ahead of the U.S.
putting the boots currently heading toward the Persian
Gulf region on the ground on that island.
But that’s just one possibility.
There are others
that we’ll get to, but Iran’s desperation is also showing in how it’s approaching negotiations with
the U.S.
that could bring an end to Operation Epic Fury.
It’s not clear if these negotiations are
even happening, as the U.S.
claims that they are while Iran says that the U.S.
is negotiating with
itself, followed by its regime claiming that it has no intention of negotiating right now.
These
appear to be games being played by a regime that is very clearly worried that the U.S.
is about to
take Operation Epic Fury to a new level, and Trump is clearly frustrated by it all.
Taking to his
Truth Social platform on March 26, Trump declared, “The Iranian negotiators are very different and
‘strange.’ They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they have
been militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback, and yet they publicly state that
they are only ‘looking at our proposal.’ WRONG!!!” Trump then added that Iran’s regime “…better
get serious soon, before it is too late, because once that happens, there is NO TURNING
BACK, and it won’t be pretty.” Iran can’t receive a warning clearer than that.
And as much as its
regime is trying to act as though it is operating from a position of strength in negotiations that
it claims aren’t even happening, the fortification of Kharg Island is the telltale sign that it is
very worried about what the U.S.
is sending its way right now.
Over 6,000 Marines and paratroopers
are coming, but what might happen next could catch everybody, especially Iran’s regime, completely
off guard.
Kharg Island may not be the target for a ground invasion at all.
In fact, attacking
that island is only one of four potential approaches that the U.S.
could take as boots on
the ground start to seem inevitable.
The first scenario we’re going to cover skips Kharg Island
altogether.
America’s plan might be to deal with Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz rather
than to weaken the regime with an assault on its oil facilities on Kharg Island.
And to pull that
off, the U.S.
would have to focus on the coastal regions in the strait, along with an entirely
different island that is perhaps as strategically important to Iran as Kharg Island, but for a
different reason – enabling its Hormuz blockade.
If this is indeed the plan, there are good reasons
why the U.S.
would want to execute on it.
Iran’s Hormuz blockade has essentially closed a waterway
through which about 20% of the world’s oil, much of it from Gulf countries that aren’t allied
with Iran, flows.
Iran is believed to have mined the shipping lanes established in that strait, and
its blockade has resulted in oil prices jumping up to around $100 per barrel.
Key to this blockade
is the asymmetric approach that Iran has taken.
Iran isn’t sending warships into the Strait of
Hormuz.
They would be easy targets for America’s overwhelming airpower.
Instead, Iran is using
a combination of drones, anti-ship missiles, and fast boats to make crossing the Strait of
Hormuz a very dangerous prospect for any merchant ship that would typically have used the waterway.
This is where the U.S.
ground forces come into play.
Iran is able to exercise so much control
in the Strait of Hormuz because its coast runs the entire 100-mile length of the waterway.
And
along that coast are hidden missile launch sites and makeshift ports that enable Iran’s asymmetric
approach.
So, what we could see from the U.S.
is the landing of its Marines, or perhaps airdrops
of paratroopers, who are tasked with taking out or holding key military nodes on the Strait of
Hormuz coast, thus taking away Iran’s ability to use those nodes in its blockade.
Then comes
the island that we mentioned earlier.
Qeshm is an island that overlooks the Strait of Hormuz.
It’s the largest of the many islands that are in the Persian Gulf region, though at about
130 kilometers, or around 80.7 miles, long, it’s certainly vulnerable to a ground campaign.
You might wonder why the U.S.
would even bother, though, given that Qeshm is more known for its
lush foliage and wildlife, which is why Iran applied for it to become a UNESCO World Heritage
Site back in 2007.
But behind the popular tourist destination lurk secrets that Iran doesn’t want
anybody to know about.
According to The Telegraph, hidden deep beneath the salt caves and mangrove
forests that have for so long made Qeshm a tourist hotspot is an underground missile city where Iran
has stockpiled weapons that include the types of anti-ship munitions it has been using to target
merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Some of the tunnels in this missile city go as deep as
1,600 feet.
Iran’s weapons are hiding away on an island that is perfectly positioned to aid in the
blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
For the U.S., a ground operation on that island would be a huge
help when it comes to solving the Hormuz problem.
Preceded by airstrikes, the 82nd Airborne Division
could land paratroopers on Qeshm, where they would seize military nodes and raid the tunnel network
that Iran has built under the island.
Combine that with MEU assaults against coastal military
nodes, along with A-10 strafing runs over the Strait of Hormuz itself, and the U.S.
may have
a military answer to the Hormuz problem.
So, that’s one potential approach in terms of what
comes next when America’s ground forces arrive in the Persian Gulf region.
The next is a little
more nebulous and certainly doesn’t have the sort of direct route to victory that we see in
this first strategy.
But before we get to that, this is a quick reminder that you’re watching
The Military Show.
If you haven’t subscribed yet, now is the perfect time to hit that button.
Second
on the list of possibilities is that the U.S.
starts deploying special forces operatives for
targeted missions inside Iran, which could extend to the destruction of military nodes or even
the capturing of key personnel.
That’s according to Ehud Eilam, who is a former official in the
Israeli Ministry of Defense.
Though Eilam notes that securing the Strait of Hormuz seems like the
most logical step for the U.S., “They may come and capture a certain objective, destroy some Iranian
radar or some Iranian facility, take some generals into captivity.” The difference in this approach
would be that the U.S.
would be focused on further degrading Iran’s military capabilities, rather
than attempting to capture and hold positions.
Small operations teams could certainly play a
role here.
And on the leadership extraction point, we’ve seen the U.S.
pull off those kinds of
operations in the very recent past.
It was only in January that American special forces took
Venezuela’s former President, Nicolas Maduro, into custody with an extraction operation that
penetrated deep into the heart of Caracas.
So, the U.S.
has the capabilities to capture leaders.
Whether the MEUs and paratroopers it’s sending to Iran do is another question.
Neither type of unit
is designed for that purpose, though paratroopers could indeed help with degrading military
nodes, perhaps in preparation for follow-on airstrikes.
You also have to consider how useful
the extraction of any of Iran’s leaders would be at this point.
Operation Epic Fury and Operation
Roaring Lion already took out former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during the first day of the
war with Iran, and dozens more military officials and political figures have been eliminated in
the days since.
Perhaps an argument could be made that extracting an Iranian leader, such as
Ali Khamenei’s son and new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, could give the U.S.
some leverage in
negotiations.
But it seems just as likely that Iran will continue on with a fractured leadership,
just as it has been throughout Operation Epic Fury.
Some isolated strikes against military nodes
inside Iran are a possibility.
Extracting leaders, perhaps less so, especially with the types of
forces that the U.S.
is sending to the Persian Gulf region.
That brings us to the third option,
which in turn brings us back to Kharg Island.
We’ve already touched on the benefits of putting
boots on the ground in Kharg Island.
It’s an island, for starters, which is perfect territory
for MEUs and can be targeted by paratroopers who are dropped into key positions on Kharg.
Plus,
there’s the 90% of Iran’s oil exports issue.
If the U.S.
can take control of the island’s oil
facilities, it will choke Iran’s economy, which in turn gives it leverage that can be used to force
the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Or it’ll just bankrupt the Iranian regime, forcing
capitulation.
Either option would be fine for the U.S.
An invasion of Kharg Island is also
very much possible, former CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel tells The War Zone.
“I would imagine
on a little island like Kharg, you would need a battalion-sized force of Marines or soldiers could
probably do that.
So you’re probably looking at 800 to 1,000 troops, kind of size, maybe a little
bit smaller, probably not much larger than that,” Votel claims.
Again, this is very much MEU
territory, and, if Votel is correct, the U.S.
wouldn’t even need the full force of the two MEUs
that it’s sending to Iran to take Kharg Island.
However, taking Kharg Island isn’t the issue.
The
real problem is this: Holding onto an island that is just 20 miles or so from the Iranian coast, and
would be a sitting duck for missile launches and other types of attacks from the Iranian mainland.
The Atlantic points out that this proximity to Iran, combined with the fact that the nearest
friendly base is about 140 miles away, causes issues.
It could put America’s ground forces in a
position where they’re trying to hold Kharg Island while they’re constantly under attack and dealing
with resupply missions that would inherently carry a lot of risk.
Drones and missiles would fly
constantly, and logistical support would be difficult for the U.S.
to provide as quickly as
needed.
Still, these are problems that can be solved, especially if the U.S.
forms a blockade
around the island and transports enough air defenses to secure it as best as possible against
the Iranian response.
If America manages that, the juice could be worth the squeeze, as Iran’s
regime won’t survive for very long, and the same goes for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
if it doesn’t have access to the money generated by oil exports.
Though Kharg Island seems like
the clearest of the three options, based on the fact that the U.S.
has already hit its military
facilities and has threatened to strike again, there is a fourth option: Entering Iran and taking
its uranium.
Of the four options, this would be the most difficult, as it involves sending special
forces deep into Iran to essentially take over the underground bunkers where Iran’s enriched uranium
is kept.
That is far more than a destruction or extraction mission.
The U.S.
would need to
have enough soldiers in play to not only take the uranium sites but to hold them against the
inevitable Iranian counterattacks.
As Votel points out, sites like Isfahan and Natanz are hundreds
of miles inland and largely in open plain areas, which provide practically no terrain protection.
A
sizable force of anywhere between 1,000 and 4,000 troops would be needed to secure this kind
of site long enough for the enriched uranium to be extracted, and the U.S.
would also need
engineers and specialists who can conduct this extraction safely.
Much like with the targeting
of Iran’s leaders, questions have to be asked about whether MEUs and paratroopers are built for
these kinds of operations.
They seem more like the preserve of Delta Force or the Navy SEALs,
perhaps with support from MEUs and paratroopers.
But who knows? Those sorts of special forces might
already be on their way, and the U.S.
simply isn’t telling anybody.
What has been publicized so far
could be for force projection, while secretive special forces units could also be en route to
conduct the types of missions that the Marines and paratroopers that we know are heading to don’t
do.
If this is the route that the U.S.
takes, the big risks that come with it could also offer
some big rewards.
Iran’s nuclear weapons program was a huge trigger for Operation Epic Fury.
Though Iran isn’t believed to have nuclear weapons capabilities right now, it’s clearly working to
put itself in a position where it could build a basic nuke.
That much is clear from the sheer size
of the stockpile of enriched uranium that is in the country.
According to the Center for Arms
Control and Non-Proliferation, that stockpile amounts to 440.9 kilograms, or about 972 pounds,
of uranium that has been enriched up to 60% of the U-235 isotope.
This is the explosive isotope that
makes the types of nukes Iran would want to build possible.
And worse yet, the center says, Iran has
already completed 99% of the work it needs to do to enrich its uranium further to hit the 90% of
U-235 needed to build a nuclear weapon.
In other words, Iran says that it doesn’t have a nuke, and
it may be telling the truth.
But it could build one.
And that’s a problem that the U.S.
might look
to solve by sending soldiers into Iran to extract as much of its enriched uranium as possible.
This isn’t a one-day operation for the U.S., though.
It would need several days to package
and extract Iran’s uranium, and with that time comes the need to defend its troops as they do
their work.
Any of the four scenarios that we’ve presented here would change everything for Iran
and Operation Epic Fury.
That would represent the type of escalation that Iran’s regime never
expected, with each also being designed to strip Iran of key pieces of leverage it wants to use
to keep itself alive in this fight.
Losing Kharg Island means no more oil money.
The U.S.
putting
boots on the ground in the Strait of Hormuz and Qeshm would be a problem for Iran’s blockade
strategy.
If leaders are extracted, that gives the U.S.
more negotiating power.
And the loss
of its enriched uranium, which would likely be accompanied by the controlled destruction
of centrifuges and other vital equipment, would cripple Iran’s nuclear plans.
All could push
Iran closer to regime change, too.
Speaking to CBN News, former Deputy Commander of Israel’s Sayeret
Matkal special forces unit, Doron Kempel, claims that there are likely generals in the IRGC who are
frustrated and willing to defect, and he adds that both the U.S.
and Israel will have operatives on
the ground working under deep cover to push these defections along.
“At the decisive moment, when
the IRGC’s collapse is imminent, these generals could rally their forces, link up with Mossad and
CIA operatives, and ignite a full-scale internal revolution from within,” Kempel tells CBN News.
Perhaps U.S.
boots on the ground could provide that decisive moment.
If it does, Iran’s regime
won’t just be losing a key piece of leverage, no matter which of these options the U.S.
chooses.
It would also be primed to lose the very seat of power that it has held for decades.
What seems
almost certain is that the largest U.S.
ground invasion in Iran’s history is about to go down,
and it could change everything.
We’ve mentioned America’s MEUs several times already.
If you want
to find out more about what they are and what they could do in Iran, then check out our video.
And if
you enjoyed this video, be sure to subscribe as we track America’s moves as it looks to transition
to a ground-based phase of Operation Epic Fury.
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